Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Boston Votes: 2009 Municipal Election

As is quickly becoming tradition, below, please find my analysis and overview of yesterday's mayoral election. I was heartened by the number of people I saw at the polls yesterday who told me how much they enjoy my channeling my number-crunching inner-geek.

Overview
In a climate where incumbents were losing or facing much closer-than expected results, four-term incumbent Mayor Thomas M. Menino again proved that he is the exception to the rule. While Councilor-at-large Michael Flaherty put up a valiant fight, Menino again romped.

Winning 57% to Flaherty's 42%, Menino won a broad victory across the city. Communities of color in particular, provided Menino with a firewall of support that made his defeat impossible.

Floon Effect?
Flaherty and his troops should be commended for waging a serious campaign, and their inclusion of vanquished preliminary opponent Sam Yoon as a "running mate" was an inspired move. Indeed, Team Floon helped narrow the gap in many progressive wards where Flaherty barely registered in September. Some of this made up lost ground can be explained by the increase in voter turnout (which hit over 31% by day's end), but certainly the unorthodox pairing of these two colleagues gave Flaherty some extra-oomph leading into yesterday's vote.

It worked in some progressive wards (Flaherty narrowly won affluent Ward 5, after coming in 3rd in the prelim), but seemed to have a negligible effect in communities of color. In predominantly African-American wards 8, 9, and 14, Menino's numbers were solid -- and Flaherty didn't stand a chance.

Highlights (or lowlights, depending on your candidate preference)
After winning just 3 wards in the preliminary election (South Boston and Charlestown), Flaherty won 5 yesterday (Charlestown, Back Bay/Beacon Hill, his native South Boston, and part of Dorchester). Menino carried the remaining 17 wards. This is impressive for Flaherty, as Menino won all 22 wards in his 2001 and 2005 reelection fights.

More interestingly, Flaherty claimed a total of 72 precinct wins scattered across the city. He won 7 precincts in Ward 2 (Charlestown), 2 in Ward 3 (Downtown), 2 in Ward 4 (the Fenway), 9 in Ward 5 (Back Bay/Beacon Hill), sixteen in Wards 6 & 7 (South Boston), 2 in Ward 10 (Mission Hill), twelve in Wards 11 & 19 (Jamaica Plain), 7 in Wards 13 & 16 (parts of Dorchester), and fifteen in Wards 21 & 22 (Allston/Brighton).

Menino won 179 precincts across the city. He could claim shut-outs (winning every precinct) in Wards 1 (East Boston), 8 (Roxbury/South Bay), 9 (Roxbury/South End), 12 (Roxbury), 14, 15, 17 (various parts of Dorchester), 18 (Mattapan/Hyde Park), and 20 (Roslindale/West Roxbury). The only Ward where Menino lost every precinct was Ward 6 (South Boston).

Best and Worst (Redux)
Excluding the unnecessary polling location Ward 1, Precinct 15 (Harbor Islands), where one person cast one ballot for Menino (and thus gave him 100% of the vote), the Mayor's best showing percentage-wise was Ward 14, Precinct 9 (Dorchester), where he defeated Flaherty by a margin of 82.35% - 17.65% (196 - 42 votes). Flaherty's best showing percentage-wise was Ward 6, Precinct 8 (South Boston), where he defeated Menino by a margin of 75.78% - 23.76% (488 - 153 votes).

In terms of raw numbers, Menino earned the most votes in Ward 18, Precinct 20 (Readville), where he received a whopping 714 votes to Flaherty's 233. Flaherty captured the most raw votes in Ward 7, Precinct 3 (South Boston), where he out-polled the Mayor 597-273.
[The worst raw vote totals for both candidates (excluding the Harbor Islands) comes from Ward 21, Precinct 2 (BU) where Flaherty defeated Menino with a vote of 17 - 9.]
Boston Battlegrounds
Menino and Flaherty tied in three precincts in the city. In Ward 1, Precinct 7 (East Boston), both men received 129 votes; in Ward 16, Precinct 2 (Dorchester), they both received 141 votes; and in Ward 22, Precinct 1 (Brighton), they both received 222 votes.

There were three wards that were separated by less than 100 votes. The closest, Ward 16(Dorchester) saw Flaherty defeat Menino by 45 votes (3157-3112). Menino took Ward 22 (Brighton) by 58 votes (2306-2248). Flaherty won Ward 5 (Back Bay/Beacon Hill) by 72 votes.

Ward-by-ward breakdown (with preliminary results from 9/23/09)

Ward 1 (East Boston)
Menino 2984 votes (In the preliminary, Mayor Menino received: 2145 votes)
Flaherty 1927 (In the preliminary, Councilor Flaherty received: 924 votes)

Ward 2 (Charlestown)
Flaherty 2243 votes (preliminary: 1172 votes)
Menino 1800 (preliminary: 1088)

Ward 3 (North End/Chinatown/Downtown)
Menino 3195 votes (preliminary: 2006 votes)
Flaherty 2600 (preliminary: 868)

Ward 4 (Fenway)
Menino 1824 votes (preliminary: 1030 votes)
Flaherty 1554 (preliminary: 340)

Ward 5 (Back Bay/Beacon Hill)
Flaherty 2544 votes (preliminary: 613)
Menino 2472 (preliminary: 1215)

Ward 6 (South Boston)
*Home ward of Michael Flaherty
Flaherty 3663 votes (preliminary: 2495 votes)
Menino 1452 (preliminary: 888)

Ward 7 (South Boston)
Flaherty 2988 votes (preliminary: 2005 votes)
Menino 1796 (preliminary: 1203)

Ward 8 (Roxbury/South Bay)
Menino 1224 votes (preliminary: 740 votes)
Flaherty 580 (preliminary: 137)

Ward 9 (Roxbury/South End)
Menino 1637 votes (preliminary: 1049 votes)
Flaherty 905 (preliminary: 185)

Ward 10 (Mission Hill/Jamaica Plain)
Menino 1818 votes (preliminary: 1153 votes)
Flaherty 1212 (preliminary: 336)

Ward 11 (Jamaica Plain/Roxbury)
Menino 2198 votes (preliminary: 1367 votes)
Flaherty 1784 (preliminary: 332)

Ward 12 (Roxbury)
Menino 2278 votes (preliminary: 1633 votes)
Flaherty 953 (preliminary: 210)

Ward 13 (Dorchester: Savin Hill/Harbor Point/St. William’s)
Menino 2066 votes (preliminary: 1446 votes)
Flaherty 1508 (preliminary: 624)

Ward 14 (Dorchester: Blue Hill Ave/Columbia Road)
Menino 3342 votes (preliminary: 2369 votes)
Flaherty 736 (preliminary: 264)

Ward 15 (Dorchester: St. Peter’s/Ronan Park)
Menino 1659 votes (preliminary: 1160 votes)
Flaherty 736 (preliminary: 221)

Ward 16 (Dorchester: St. Brendan’s/St. Ann’s/St. Mark’s)
Flaherty 3157 votes (preliminary: 1858 votes)
Menino 3112 (preliminary: 2128)

Ward 17 (Dorchester: Codman Square/Lower Mills/St. Greg’s)
Menino 3333 votes (preliminary: 2251 votes)
Flaherty 1638 (preliminary: 542)

Ward 18 (Hyde Park/Mattapan/Readville)
*Home ward of Mayor Menino
Menino 9637 votes (preliminary: 6616 votes)
Flaherty 3558 (preliminary: 1492)

Ward 19 (Jamaica Plain/Roslindale)
Menino 3337 votes (preliminary: 1895 votes)
Flaherty 3125 (preliminary: 844)

Ward 20 (West Roxbury/Roslindale)
Menino 7418 votes (preliminary: 4578 votes)
Flaherty 5240 (preliminary: 2639)

Ward 21 (Allston)
Menino 2234 votes (preliminary: 1474 votes)
Flaherty 1614 (preliminary: 419)

Ward 22 (Brighton)
Menino 2306 votes (preliminary: 1557 votes)
Flaherty 2248 (preliminary: 939)

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